Haywood: Kaufempfehlung für Treasury Metals mit Ziel 1,10 CAD

We are initiating coverage of Treasury Metals Inc. with a $1.10 target and a BUY rating. 

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Treasury Metals is a development-stage company advancing its Goliath gold project in Ontario. The project hosts the Goliath deposit, which comprises two gold mineralized horizons (the Main Zone and C Zone) that host National Instrument 43-101 compliant resources of 20.6 million tonnes (Mt) grading 1.69 grams per tonne (g/t) gold containing 1.11 million ounces (Moz) of gold (measured and indicated), as well as inferred resources of 3.5 Mt grading 2.96 g/t gold containing 0.33 Moz of gold. Gold mineralization is open along strike and to depth. The Company is testing the potential for extensions and conducting infill drilling to heighten resource confidence ahead of completion of a feasibility study in mid-2018. 

We model gold-(silver) production that delivers ~1.2 Moz of gold from the Goliath project. This model employs the 2015 resource estimate at Goliath as an underlying starting point. It also integrates some growth in these resources, as we believe that the 2016 as well as the 2017 drilling are likely, at least modestly, to build on the 2015 estimate. Our conceptual approach utilizes data presented in the 2017 Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA), and envisions largely concurrent open-pit and underground mining, with the open-pit mining enjoying a projected average strip ratio of 6:1. The operating plant considers conventional comminution comprising primary crushing and grinding within a semi-autogenous grinding (SAG) mill, followed by gravity and carbon in leach (CIL) processing to produce doré at a life-of-mine average gold recovery rate of 95%.

  • ▪  Processing annual rate: ~0.9 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa)

  • ▪  Gold Production: 93 thousand ounces (koz) of gold per annum over 13 years

    to produce ~1.2 Moz

  • ▪  Average total cash cost: US$625 per ounce of gold

  • ▪  Average all-in sustaining cost (AISC): US$764 per ounce of gold

  • ▪  Pre-production development capital: $158 million

  • ▪  Sustaining capital: $122 million 

Valuation

 Our target price of $1.10 per share is based on a 1.0x multiple to our fully financed corporate net asset value NAV8% of $254 million or $1.08 per share.

Risks

 Our overall risk rating for Treasury Metals is Very High given a number of factors, including 1) Financing risk, as the Company will require further capital to advance development; 2) Permitting risk, as the project is not yet approved; 3) Exploration risk, for while we factor in modest growth at Goliath, there is no guarantee of exploration and/or resource conversion success. 



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