Precious Metals Report 2023/11 - Update
Gold will remain THE number 1 safe haven in 2023! Against all odds - high interest rates, strong bond market, competition from Bitcoin & Co. - gold recently held its ground not only in terms of price. The ETF outflows, which dominated the gold sector in 2023, also trended towards zero recently, with the central banks in particular once again clearly on the buying side in 2023. Gold, as THE store of value par excellence, is getting a tailwind from the geopolitical side, in the form of more and more crises flaring up in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and around China's power play in East Asia. Persistently high inflation is doing the rest to drive the gold price up again, on a straight path to new all-time highs. As was already foreseeable in the past years, the FIAT currency system is slowly reaching its limits.
Unlike gold, silver is first and foremost a metal that is used in industry for more than half of the demand. And this to an ever-increasing extent. This is because its high conductivity in particular makes it an increasingly sought-after metal, especially in the electronics sector. Here, above all, as a conductor in electromobility, photovoltaics and 5G technology. In recent years, this has led to ever higher supply deficits, which reached a record level in 2022 and will also be very high in 2023.
Platinum is found almost exclusively in catalytic converters for diesel burners. A circumstance that has brought the metal both a decline in demand and a tidy drop in price in recent years. However, there is a bright light at the end of the tunnel, because platinum is also needed as a catalyst material in fuel cells.
Palladium is mainly used in catalytic converters of gasoline-powered vehicles, which is why palladium initially developed very well in terms of price in recent years due to the displacement of diesel by gasoline engines. This changed in 2022, when a price decline of unimagined magnitude began, which is still continuing. The loss of more and more market share to electric vehicles is taking its toll on the gasoline catalyst material palladium. Nevertheless, there is a ray of hope for palladium, as production has been declining for years.
For both platinum and palladium, a supply slump is to be expected in the coming years, as the important South African mines in particular will not be able to maintain their production to the usual extent. Even rising prices are unlikely to contribute to an improvement.
